Viendo archivo del lunes, 12 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 58
(S06W75) produced isolated C-class flares as it gradually decayed.
Region 69 (S07E65) was stable as it rotated further into view. It
was large with an area exceeding 1100 millionths of the solar disk.
It appeared to be moderately complex and may contain a magnetic
delta within its intermediate spots, though limb proximity prevented
a thorough analysis. Four new regions were assigned today: 73
(N16W13), 74 (N24W01), 75 (S09E32), and 76 (N12E75); all of which
were unremarkable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 69.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels due to
recurrent coronal hole effects.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels on 13 August as coronal
hole effects continue. Field activity is expected to decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Aug 184 Previsto 13 Aug-15 Aug 190/190/190 Media de 90 Días 12 Aug 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 013/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 015/016-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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