Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 196 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 30
(N18W00) produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008UTC associated with a
1900 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep, and a magnetic crochet
(based on Boulder USGS magnetometer data). This region also produced
frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 15/1155 UTC associated
with a Type II radio sweep. Region 30 showed significant growth in
its trailer spots during the past few days including the formation
of multiple magnetic delta configurations. The remaining active
regions were unremarkable. New Regions 35 (S09E63) and 36 (S07E76)
were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 30 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares.
Region 30 could also produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels on 16 July due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity may increase to active to
minor storm levels on 17 July following today's X-flare. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to begin early on 16 July, also
due to today's X-flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jul a 18 Jul
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jul 160 Previsto 16 Jul-18 Jul 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 15 Jul 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 001/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 012/012-020/020-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jul a 18 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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