Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 30 (N19E12)
produced numerous B- and C-class flares again today. A slight
growth of penumbral coverage was observed today in white light
analysis. The dominant intermediate spot continues to show delta
magnetic characteristics along with a weak secondary delta spot just
to the northwest of it. A re-emergence of a single alpha spot was
seen in Region 28 (S16W40). Region 29 (S14W29) continues to decay.
New Region 34 (S20E05) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. There is a chance that Region 30 could produce
another major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels through
day one. Days two and three may experience periods of active
conditions due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jul 144 Previsto 15 Jul-17 Jul 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 14 Jul 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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