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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 153 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jun 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to the occurrence of an M-class event late in the period. Region 9979 (S30E50) produced an M1.1 x-ray flare, which peaked at 02/2044 UTC. The optical enhancement remained in progress at the end of the period, but preliminary reports suggest a 1f intensity. This event also produced a moderate tenflare (530 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1079 km/s). Several C-class events also occurred throughout the day: Region 9977 (S20W54) produced a C8/Sf event at 02/1015 UTC with associated Type-II (estimated velocity 323 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps. Region 9973 (S17E10) produced an impulsive C9/Sf at 02/1147 UTC. A long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement peaked at 02/0050 UTC, but lacked correlating optical activity reports. Three new regions came into view on the east limb and were numbered today: 9981 (S22E70), 9982 (S03E74), and 9983 (N24E72).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A small chance for an isolated major flare also exists for the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quite to active levels. A rising trend in solar wind speed and fluctuating IMF, in possible association with a weak coronal hole close to geoeffective longitudes on the sun, caused predominantly unsettled and isolated active periods throughout the day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. Some combined effects from the numerous solar events of the past 48 hours are anticipated during this period. Conditions are expected to be mainly unsettled by the end of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jun a 05 Jun
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Jun 175
  Previsto   03 Jun-05 Jun  170/170/165
  Media de 90 Días        02 Jun 183
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/015-020/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jun a 05 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%35%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%35%25%
Tormenta Menor10%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%

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