Viendo archivo del lunes, 6 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 126 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a optically uncorrelated C2/1f flare at 06/1604 UTC. Region
9934 (S17E08) has shown slight decay and has simplified to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. At 06/1350 UTC a partial halo
CME appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery on the east limb. Analysis of
EIT, GOES X-Ray, and H-alpha data indicate a probable backside
event.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9934 has lost it's delta configuration in the
leader spot.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active levels. One 3-hour period
(15-18 UTC) was at active levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled conditions
are expected for day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 May a 09 May
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 May 191 Previsto 07 May-09 May 195/200/205 Media de 90 Días 06 May 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 May 002/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 May 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 May a 09 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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