Viendo archivo del domingo, 12 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 132 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9948 (S22E50)
produced a C3.7 flare at 12/0953 UTC. Region 9934 (S16W72) remains
the largest and most complex region on the disk. A slight decay in
area coverage was observed in Region 9934. Region 9937 (S08W50) has
developed a weak beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in its
trailing spot. New Region 9951 (N10E68) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 and Region 9937 have the potential for
M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on day two and three of the forecast period
due to CME effects from the M1/Sf flare on 11/1132 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 May a 15 May
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 May 183 Previsto 13 May-15 May 180/175/170 Media de 90 Días 12 May 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 May 020/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 May 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 012/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 May a 15 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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