Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 junio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 159 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jun 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small flares
occurred. Region 9987 (S15W02) continued to grow, increasing sunspot
number and magnetic complexity. New Region 9992 (S20E74) rotated
onto the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9987 is the most likely source of flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A shock was observed at
the NASA ACE spacecraft at 08/1028 UTC and was followed by a Sudden
Impulse at ground magnetometers (16nT at Boulder) at 08/1141 UTC.
This activity is believed to be related to the CME that occurred on
05 June. The observed Afr index for 07 June reported in Part V is
estimated from Boulder observations.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled by 09
June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jun a 11 Jun
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Jun 155 Previsto 09 Jun-11 Jun 150/150/155 Media de 90 Días 08 Jun 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jun 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Jun 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 008/012-008/012-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jun a 11 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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