Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9937
(S09W38) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1132 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep of 415 km/s and minor discrete radio bursts.
Increased magnetic complexity is apparent in this region with the
hint of a delta forming in the dominant spot, seen in the trailing
portion of spot cluster. Region 9934 (S17W59) was fairly active
today, producing multiple C-class flares. The largest was a C3/Sf
flare occurring at 11/1738 UTC. This region remains the most
complex region on the disk. New Region 9950 (S06E44) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 11/1650 UTC. Region 9949 (S16W06) is also a newly
numbered region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9934 and 9937 are both complex enough to
produced M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. Data from
the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) showed an increase in the
solar wind speed from roughly 350 to 450 km/s beginning at
approximately 11/0915 UTC. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained strongly negative for several
hours thereafter. A sudden impulse of 41 nT was observed at the
Boulder Magnetometer at 11/1028 UTC. Major storm conditions were
observed at high latitudes from 11/1100 through 11/1800 UTC.
Uncertain as to the source(s) of the activity, although multiple
CME's were seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery on the eighth and ninth.
Source regions for CME's believed to have been from both the east
and west limbs.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions may occur on day three of the
forecast due to the M1/Sf flare that occurred at 11/1132 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 May a 14 May
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 May 188 Previsto 12 May-14 May 190/195/190 Media de 90 Días 11 May 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 May 019/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 May 035/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 012/015-008/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 May a 14 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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