Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 358 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. There were three
low-level M-class flares during the past day, an M1/Sf at 23/2336
UTC in Region 9748 (S10W21), an M1/1n at 24/0032 UTC in Region 9754
(S08E48), and an optically uncorrelated M3 at 24/1400 UTC. Limited
real-time, ground-based and satellite data hampered analysis all
day. Region 9742 (N11W44) still appears to be the largest sunspot
group on the disk but seems to be a stacked bipolar region of fairly
simple magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels. M-class flares are possible from Regions 9742,
9748, and 9754.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of a high-speed solar wind stream. The culprit coronal
hole is presumed to be the one in the southwest quadrant.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Dec a 27 Dec
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Dec 275 Previsto 25 Dec-27 Dec 280/275/270 Media de 90 Días 24 Dec 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Dec 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Dec 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 015/015-010/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Dec a 27 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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