Viendo archivo del martes, 27 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 331 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. There were numerous
C-class flares observed during the period. The vast majority of
these flares appeared to originate from source regions beyond the
east limb (based on SXI imagery). Region 9715 (N05E30) produced
a single optically correlated C6/Sf flare at 27/1552 UTC.
This region has continued to show growth in magnetic complexity and
areal coverage. Region 9715 remains the most noteworthy region on the
visible disk. New Region 9717 (N06E78) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low to moderate levels. Region 9715 has the potential
to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event (began 22/2320 UTC, max 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC)
remains in progress although flux values have been oscillating
across event threshold levels throughout the past ten hours of the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible during the forecast period due to a southern
hemisphere coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Nov a 30 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Nov 190 Previsto 28 Nov-30 Nov 195/205/210 Media de 90 Días 27 Nov 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Nov 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 004/005-008/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Nov a 30 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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