Viendo archivo del martes, 4 septiembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A gradual rise in X-rays began at around 04/1000Z and continued through the end of this period. Since 04/1500Z, the X-ray baseline ranged from C4 - C8 with occasional fluctuations to the M1 level. Development within regions near the SE limb, the SW limb and within Region 9601 (N13W22) are the likely sources of the enhanced X-rays. Region 9606 (S17E45) produced an impulsive M1/1n at 04/2017Z. Region 9601, at almost 800 millionths of white light area is moderately complex and the largest region on the visible disk. Several plage fluctuations were observed in this region, but only minor C-class flareS were observed. The two M-class flares observed yesterday at 03/1545Z and 03/1841Z were likely associated with CMEs off the SE limb. New region 9607 (S16E68) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. New regions near the SE limb and developing regions near the SW limb have potential for isolated M-class flares. Region 9601 also has potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly at unsettled to active levels. A high speed coronal hole stream and possibly some weak CME effects are producing the disturbed conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of day one and persist through days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 Sep 218
  Previsto   05 Sep-07 Sep  210/210/205
  Media de 90 Días        04 Sep 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep  012/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  015/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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