Viendo archivo del lunes, 3 septiembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 246 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Sep 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A very gradual rise in X-rays began at 03/1545Z, peaking at the M1 level at 03/1716Z and ending at 1737Z. A long duration M2 event soon followed, peaking at 03/1841Z. No obvious optical source was apparent for either event. A C9 flare occurred at 03/0158Z associated with a Type II sweep and bright surge near S22 on the east limb. Region 9591 (S18W81) maintains a Delta configuration as it nears the west limb. New spot groups emerging just east of Region 9591 may add to this region's complexity. Region 9601 (N14W06) continues to maintain moderate complexity with near 700 millionths of white light area coverage and was the source of a number of small C-class flares. New Regions 9604 (S21W61), 9605 (S20E53), and 9606 (S17E57) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 9591 and 9601 maintain good potential for M-class flares and an isolated major flare. New spot development just east of Region 9591 further supports potential for significant activity near the SW limb. Activity on the SE limb suggests a region with some complexity will rotate into view the next day or so.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal hole stream and possibly some weak CME effects are producing the disturbed conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. Conditions will return to quiet to unsettled levels by days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Sep a 06 Sep
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       03 Sep 199
  Previsto   04 Sep-06 Sep  190/180/175
  Media de 90 Días        03 Sep  158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 02 Sep  002/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  020/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Sep a 06 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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