Viendo archivo del sábado, 11 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 223 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9566 (N17W72)
produced several C-class flares during the period. This region has
continued to develop and is currently a Dao beta-gamma delta
configuration. There was a long duration C2 event at 11/0640 UTC
with no optical reports observed. Two new regions were numbered
today as Regions 9575 (N11E73) and 9576 (N12W53).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. One active period was
observed at high latitudes at 10/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event on 10 August ended at 10/1440 UTC. The event began at
10/1020 UTC and had a peak flux of 17 pfu at 10/1020 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storm conditions for 12 August.
Active to minor storm conditions are possible for 13 August with
unsettled to active conditions on 14 August. This activity is due
to a high speed coronal hole stream and the 09 August partial halo
CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 165 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 160/155/150 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 006/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 050/050-030/030-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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