Viendo archivo del viernes, 10 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 222 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9562 (N05W82) produced
a C8/Sf event at 10/0136 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep.
A new region was numbered today as Region 9575 (S03E04). The LASCO
images from yesterday observed a partial halo coronal mass ejection.
The possible cause was a North-South filament channel eruption
observed on EIT images at 10/0936 UTC close to central meridian.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible from several
regions on the disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 10/1020 UTC with a peak flux observed at
10/1635 UTC of 17 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The
actual source of the event is not currently known as several
possibilities exists.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 August. Disturbed
conditions are expected on 12th and 13th of August due to a high
speed coronal hole flow with minor to major storm conditions
possible as a result of the CME on 09 August. The greater than 10
MeV protons should remain enhanced through the period with a chance
of exceeding threshold on 12 August due to the CME passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Aug 160 Previsto 11 Aug-13 Aug 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 10 Aug 150
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/010-040/040-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Aug a 13 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 15% |
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