Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 julio 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jul 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 195 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jul 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9539 (S18W02) produced
sporadic minor C-class events, the largest being a C2/Sf flare at
14/0430 UTC. Region 9539 has shown significant growth in area and
spot count and has also developed into a beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Region 9541 (N18E54) also produced optical subflares
during the period. The remainder of the disk and limbs were mostly
quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. If Region 9539 continues to develop into a more
complex spot group, it could be capable of producing isolated
M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with active
conditions occurring between 14/0000 and 14/0600 UTC. This was
probably the result of a passing transient solar wind disturbance.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to active with isolated periods possible
on 16-17 July, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jul 141 Previsto 15 Jul-17 Jul 140/140/145 Media de 90 Días 14 Jul 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 008/011-012/013-012/013
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jul a 17 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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