Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 julio 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jul 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9543 (S23W06)
produced today's largest flare, a C6/Sf at 0508 UTC. Region 9543
continues to be the largest group on the disk and is growing slowly.
Region 9548 (N16E09) also showed growth but was stable. Region 9545
(N09W43) showed newly emerging magnetic flux in the middle of the
old fields, and exhibited occasional plage fluctuations, but no
flare-level activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. There is, however, a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. There is
a possibility for a small increase in activity on the third day in
response to a small but favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jul 139 Previsto 22 Jul-24 Jul 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 21 Jul 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 007/008-007/010-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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