Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 agosto 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class subflares occurred. The largest was a C1/Sf at 17/0011 UTC in Region 9581 (S25W42). Although there are several sunspot groups on the visible disk all of them are relatively small and magnetically simple. New Regions 9586 (S15W47) and 9587 (S11E56) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional low-level C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until the occurrence of a sudden impulse observed at ground magnetometers (36 nT at Boulder) at about 17/1103 UTC. The impulse was preceded by a shock observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at 17/1017 UTC. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly active to minor storm levels since the impulse. A series of magnetopause crossings were observed at the NOAA GOES spacecraft in the interval from about 17/1930--2100 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event which began yesterday has ended (start 16/0105 UTC, 29 pfu peak at 16/0305 UTC, and end 17/1415 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV event remains in progress (start 16/0135 UTC and 493 pfu peak at 16/0355 UTC). The current proton flux (17/2100 UTC) at greater than 10 MeV is about 20 pfu and is slowly decaying.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours becoming unsettled to active after that. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end by 19 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón90%30%01%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Aug 145
  Previsto   18 Aug-20 Aug  150/150/155
  Media de 90 Días        17 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  025/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  020/015-015/015-010/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%15%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%20%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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