Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 mayo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. This was an M1 x-ray flare that occurred at
02/0040 UTC. This event coincided with an eruptive prominence on the
northwest limb, most likely originating from Region 9433 (N19W90+).
Regions 9441 (N07W29) and 9445 (N25E23) were both active during the
period, producing C-class x-ray events and optical flares. Region
9445 also showed significant growth in the number of sunspots today
(28 to 40). Two new regions were numbered: 9448 (N22E60) and 9449
(S15E69).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9441 and 9445 are capable of producing isolated
M-class events during the forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods possible, due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 May 176 Previsto 03 May-05 May 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 02 May 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 May 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 May 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 010/015-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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