Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 abril 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 095 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Apr 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two major flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The first was a long-duration M8 that peaked at 0922Z, originating from Region 9393 behind the west limb. This flare was associated with a CME which gives every indication of moving in a westward direction, perpendicular to the Earth-Sun line. The second was an M5/2n at 1725Z from Region 9415 (S21E47). This event had an extended maximum and a slow decay profile. An associated CME was just entering the C2 field of view at forecast issue time and did not appear to have any earthward component. Region 9415 appears to have formed a delta configuration in the leader portion of the group. Region 9417 (S08E27) grew rapidly during the last 24 hours and produced an M1/Sn flare at 0834Z. Today's 10.7 cm background flux of 210 SFU had to be estimated due to greatly enhanced radio noise levels occurring with today's long-duration flare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate during the next three days. There is a fair chance, however, for additional major flares from Region 9415.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to active during the past 24 hours. The first nine hours of the period were quiet, but activity increased to mostly active from 0600-2100Z. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress with a continued slow decline in flux levels. The flux at 05/2100Z was 25 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some isolated active periods. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail for the second and third days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Apr a 08 Apr
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón99%20%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Apr 210
  Previsto   06 Apr-08 Apr  210/210/205
  Media de 90 Días        05 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Apr  012/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/008-012/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Apr a 08 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%10%

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