Viendo archivo del martes, 1 mayo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 121 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 May 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
x-ray event from Region 9433 (N19W80). This was an M2/Sf flare that
occurred at 01/1917 UTC. Regions 9441 (N06W16) and 9445 (N26E37)
produced C-class x-ray and optical sub-flares during the period.
Region 9445 grew in area and spot count today. The Penticton 10.7 cm
Flux of 210 sfu was enhanced by the M2 flare. The value is more
likely closer to the Penticton morning observation of 185 sfu.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be moderate. Region 9433 is capable of producing an M-class event
before rotating completely over the western limb. Region 9441 and
9445 are also showing potential for isolated M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing
chance of active conditions on the third day of the period, due to
favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 May a 04 May
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 May 210 Previsto 02 May-04 May 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 01 May 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 001/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 May 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 010/012-010/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 May a 04 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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