Viendo archivo del lunes, 30 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 120 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9445 (N24E48)
produced a C5/Sf flare at 30/0721Z, and numerous lesser C-class
flares throughout the day. Region 9333 (N17W74) was also a source
of C-class activity. Regions 9445 and 9441 (N07W04) both exhibited
moderate growth in areal coverage, while Region 9433 has shown some
signs of decay as it approaches the west limb. New Region 9447
(N12E15) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a chance for a major flare event remaining for Region
9433 in particular.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing
chance of active to minor storm conditions evolving toward the end
of the three day period, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Any major flare activity from Region 9433 during the period would
also carry a fair chance for an associated proton event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 May a 03 May
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Apr 188 Previsto 01 May-03 May 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 30 Apr 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Apr 004/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 May a 03 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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