Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 119 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9433 (N18W63)
produced isolated C-class subflares as it continued to show gradual
decay in its lead and intermediate spots. However, no significant
changes occurred within its trailer spots, where a magnetic delta
configuration persisted. Region 9441 (N07E11) continued a gradual
growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9444 (S11E52)
showed minor spot and penumbral development. Region 9445 (N24E61)
also exhibited minor spot and penumbral development and produced
isolated C-class subflares late in the period. New Region 9446
(S05W22) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce isolated
low-level M-class flares during the period. It may also produce an
isolated major flare before crossing the west limb on 02 May.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
geomagnetic field disturbance that began yesterday subsided to quiet
to unsettled levels after 29/0600 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period.
Region 9433 could produce a proton flare before crossing the west
limb on 02 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Apr a 02 May
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Apr 192 Previsto 30 Apr-02 May 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 29 Apr 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Apr 034/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Apr a 02 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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