Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 118 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity dropped to low levels. Region 9433
(N17W50) produced isolated C-class flares, the largest of which was
a C7/1f at 28/0934 UTC. Gradual decay continued in the leading and
intermediate portions of this region. However, no decay was evident
within its trailing spots, where a strong magnetic delta
configuration remained. Region 9441 (N07E23) continued a gradual
growth phase that began on 27 April, but the region remained a
moderate-sized, simply-structured bipole. New Regions 9444 (S11E67)
and 9445 (N23E76) were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce isolated
M-class flares. This region could also produce an isolated major
flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
An interplanetary shock at the leading edge of a CME passed the ACE
spacecraft at 28/0432 UTC, followed by a sudden impulse (SI) at
28/0520 UTC (76 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).
The source for the CME was an M7/2b flare on 26 April. Field
activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels following the
SI. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
briefly crossed event threshold in response to the shock passage.
The greater than 10 MeV event began at 28/0430 UTC, reached a
maximum of 57 PFU at 28/0500 UTC, then ended at 28/0520 UTC. Proton
fluxes had decreased to near background levels by the close of the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels through midday, 29
April as the disturbance gradually subsides. Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected for the remainder of the period. Region 9433
could produce another proton flare before it crosses the west limb
on 02 May. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Apr a 01 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Apr 188 Previsto 29 Apr-01 May 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 28 Apr 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Apr 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Apr 026/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Apr a 01 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 954Unproven theories 342AR3654 23Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/04/27 | M3.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 137.7 +30.3 |