Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 marzo 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Mar 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 062 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Mar 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class subflares occurred, most of which were produced by newly
numbered Region 9369 (N18W49). Region 9366 (S25E25) grew at a
moderate pace and showed some polarity mixing within the
intermediate portion of the group, but produced no flares. No
significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region
9370 (N09E51) was also numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 9366 could produce an isolated M-class flare, if it
continues to develop.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the first half of the period. Activity increased to unsettled to
minor storm levels at approximately 03/1100 UTC following a CME
passage at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1040 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 March as CME
effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels during the remaining two days with a slight
chance for isolated active periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach high levels during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Mar a 06 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Mar 140 Previsto 04 Mar-06 Mar 140/135/135 Media de 90 Días 03 Mar 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Mar 020/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Mar a 06 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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