Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 279 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C2/1f flare at 0613Z from Region 9172 (N13W73). Region 9173 (S13W68)
is currently the largest region on the disk but is stable and in a
state of slow decline.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels
(estimated Kp of 7). A strong shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft at 0241Z, and was followed by transient flow with
enhanced density, speed, and magnetic fields. Major to severe
storming at all latitudes began after 0300Z. There were two
intervals of strongly negative Bz: the first was from 0504-0543Z
with Bz values reaching -27 nT and the second was from 0958-1119Z
with Bz values reaching -23 nT. Severe (estimated Kp of 7) levels
were seen at high latitudes from 0300-1500Z and mid-latitudes also
attained the K=7 level from 0600-0900Z. The disturbance appeared to
be subsiding during the last three hours of the day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels during the next 24
hours as the current disturbance subsides. Unsettled to active
conditions should follow on the 2nd day, and predominantly unsettled
levels are expected by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Oct 174 Previsto 06 Oct-08 Oct 170/160/150 Media de 90 Días 05 Oct 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 025/045 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 075/085 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 025/035-015/015-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 05% |
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