Viendo archivo del martes, 2 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8971 (N19W74)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 02/1451Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 250 SFU
TENFLARE. OTHERWISE, ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY LOW WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8970 (S13W78) OR 8971.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE SOLAR WIND WAS OBSERVED WHEN A TRANSIENT PASSED THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT APRROXIMATELY 02/1040Z. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
INCREASED FROM AROUND 600 TO MOMENTARILY OVER 900 KM/SEC. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED SHORTLY AFTERWARDS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED SLOWLY
SUBSIDED AND LEVELED OFF AROUND 600 KM/SEC DURING THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD; THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 MAY a 05 MAY
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 MAY 153 Previsto 03 MAY-05 MAY 150/145/145 Media de 90 Días 02 MAY 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY 012/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY 014/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 MAY a 05 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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