Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M1 FLARE
FROM REGION 8971 (N20W61). ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT WAS OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATORIES, THE FLARE LOCATION WAS
VERIFIED BY EIT AND SXT INSTRUMENTS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY WAS NOTED
DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 8981
(S23E30).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE
PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, 01/15-1800UT AND
01/18-2100UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD, DUE TO A POSSIBLY EARTH-DIRECTED
CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON 30 APRIL.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 MAY a 04 MAY
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 MAY 158 Previsto 02 MAY-04 MAY 160/155/155 Media de 90 Días 01 MAY 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 APR 010/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAY 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAY-04 MAY 010/012-015/020-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 MAY a 04 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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