Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 124 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/0043Z. SOME MODERATE
GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8981 (S22E03) AS THE REGION GREW FROM
5 TO 10 SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE OCCURRED ON
THE SOUTHWEST LIMB FROM REGION 8970 (S14W92) AT APPROXIMATELY
03/0030Z. NEW REGION 8982 (S20E19) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8970 OR 8971
(N18W85) AS EACH REGION PASSES OVER THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR ONE PERIOD FROM
03/1500-1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 MAY a 06 MAY
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 MAY 137 Previsto 04 MAY-06 MAY 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 03 MAY 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAY 013/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAY 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAY-06 MAY 010/012-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 MAY a 06 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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