Viendo archivo del lunes, 26 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 207 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENTS OF THE
PERIOD WERE LOW LEVEL C-CLASS BURSTS. REGION 8636 (N21W41) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES, DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE, AND APPEARED TO ONCE
AGAIN SIMPLIFY MAGNETICALLY. REGION 8645 (S27E47) REMAINED
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. REGION 8639 (N38W99) PRODUCED FREQUENT
SURGING FROM BEHIND THE LIMB BUT PRODUCED NO DISCERNIBLE BURSTS.
POST EVENT ANALYSIS OF THE M2 FLARE GENERATED BY THIS REGION AT
25/1338Z INDICATED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THE
FLARE. HOWEVER, IT WAS DETERMINED BY SOHO SCIENTISTS THAT THIS CME
WAS NOT EARTH DIRECTED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8636 AND 8645 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8636 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD IS DECREASING AS THE REGION SLOWLY
DECAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 JUL a 29 JUL
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 JUL 172 Previsto 27 JUL-29 JUL 172/172/174 Media de 90 Días 26 JUL 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL 008/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL 008/007-010/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 JUL a 29 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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