Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 206 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8639 (N38W86)
PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M2/SF AT 25/1338Z. THIS EVENT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II/IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURSTS, A 600 SFU BURST AT
10 CM, AND A LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM. DUE TO FORESHORTENING, LITTLE
IS KNOWN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS REGION. REGION 8645 (S27E60)
GENERATED AN M1/1F AT 25/0432Z. THIS REGION APPEARED AS A MODERATE
SIZE F CLASS GROUP. IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE IS SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY IN THIS AREA. REGION 8636 (N21W27) GENERATED A C8/SF AT
25/0103Z. MAGNETIC FIELD MIXING INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THIS REGION
AND SPOT AREA INCREASED IN THE LEADER.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE
FROM REGIONS 8645, 8636, AND 8639. AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT IS
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8636 OR 8645.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED TO NORMAL VALUES DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. AT HIGH LATITUDES, SOME ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED
ON 28 JUL. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT A MAJOR FLARE FROM
REGION 8636 COULD CAUSE AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 JUL a 28 JUL
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 JUL 182 Previsto 26 JUL-28 JUL 180/182/184 Media de 90 Días 25 JUL 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUL 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUL 008/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUL-28 JUL 008/007-008/007-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 JUL a 28 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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