Viendo archivo del martes, 20 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT
20/0026Z WHICH WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED TO REGION 8636 (N20E36).
REGION 8636 EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH AND HAS A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. REGION 8640 (N17E79), AN HSX SPOT GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 CONTINUES TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES
INCREASED SLIGHLTY AFTER 20/1000Z BUT REMAINED BELOW 380 KM/S.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY BE
THE RESULT OF A CME EARLY ON THE 19TH. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. ALSO,
SOME MINOR EFFECTS MAY OCCUR FROM A SMALL CORONAL HOLE STREAM
IMPACTING THE EARTH AS IT ENTERS THE SOLAR WESTERN HEMISPHERE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 JUL a 23 JUL
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 JUL 140 Previsto 21 JUL-23 JUL 145/150/160 Media de 90 Días 20 JUL 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUL 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL 008/007-014/015-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 JUL a 23 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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