Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8668 (N23E40) PRODUCED
A COUPLE MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AT 16/0034Z AND 16/2029Z. THE
REGION DISPLAYED LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS EVENTS ARE MOST PROBABLE FROM REGION 8668.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR
WIND VELOCITIES STARTED TO INCREASE AROUND 16/0400Z AND REACHED OVER
700 KM/S. DENSITY DECREASED AT THE SAME TIME INDICATING A POSSIBLE
HIGH STREAM CORONAL HOLE IMPACTING THE EARTH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE THIRD DAY. THIS
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS BASED ON THE POSSIBLE CONTINUATION
OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SUN.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 AUG a 19 AUG
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 AUG 131 Previsto 17 AUG-19 AUG 135/138/145 Media de 90 Días 16 AUG 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG 013/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG 025/035 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG 015/012-015/017-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 AUG a 19 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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