Viendo archivo del lunes, 19 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 200 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8636 (N20E52) PRODUCED
AN M5/2N FLARE AT 19/0846Z. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE WERE TYPE II
AND IV SWEEPS AS WELL AS A 140 SFU 10CM BURST. THE TYPE II SPEED
WAS ESTIMATED AT 500 KM/S. EARLIER AT 19/0215Z, REGION 8631
(N12W28) PRODUCED A C4 X-RAY EVENT ALSO WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND
IV SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8639 (N38W14) WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY A
BXO-BETA SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 DISPLAYS AN INCREASE IN MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY AND HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A
FAINT FULL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO FROM REGION 8631 AT
19/0215Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 JUL a 22 JUL
| Clase M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 JUL 141 Previsto 20 JUL-22 JUL 145/145/150 Media de 90 Días 19 JUL 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL 005/008-008/007-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 JUL a 22 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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