Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 119 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8524 (N22W15)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 29/1954UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A
FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/SF AT 29/1741UT.
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 8524 AREA HAS MADE IDENTIFICATION OF THE SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUP JUST TO THE SOUTH, REGION 8522 (N17W14), DIFFICULT IF
NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THESE REGIONS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE COMBINED.
NEW REGION 8525 (N15E68) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AND HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A C2/SF AT 29/0829UT. THE AREA IS
STILL COMING INTO VIEW BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPLEX. NEW REGION 8526 (N22E35) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGIONS 8524 AND 8525.
AN ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8524.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS FROM A HIGH-SPEED STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 APR a 02 MAY
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 APR 122 Previsto 30 APR-02 MAY 125/130/135 Media de 90 Días 29 APR 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR 014/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR 015/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY 015/025-015/030-015/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 APR a 02 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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