Viendo archivo del martes, 6 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 096 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N19E37) PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 06/0705Z AND REGION 8506 (S26W410) GENERATED A C3/SF AT
05/2309Z. SOME AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WERE VISIBLE IN BOTH
REGIONS BUT OVERALL THESE REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8506 AND 8508.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 06/0000-0600Z PERIOD WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
OCCURRED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 07 APR. THEN A WEAK, CME RELATED,
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. A HALO-APPEARING CME OCCURRED AT
THE SUN ON 04 APR. HOWEVER, IT IS BELIEVED THIS CME ACTUALLY
CONSISTED OF TWO SEPARATE EJECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
LIMBS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE A DIRECT BLOW
BY THESE EJECTIONS. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC PERIODS ARE PROBABLE DURING
THE 08-09 APR TIME PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 APR a 09 APR
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 APR 137 Previsto 07 APR-09 APR 140/142/144 Media de 90 Días 06 APR 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR 009/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR 012/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 APR a 09 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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