Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 abril 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Apr 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 097 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 APR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N22E25) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 07/0924Z. THIS REGION WAS STABLE BUT RETAINED MIXED
MAGNETIC POLARITIES. A LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
06/2335-07/0115Z. THIS EVENT WAS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AS SEEN IN SOHO
CORONAGRAPH DATA. REGION 8506 (S26W55) DECAYED AND SIMPLIFIED DURING
THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8508 REMAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AN OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 07/0000-0300Z. AT THAT TIME, SOLAR WIND
DATA DID NOT INDICATE A CME LIKE SIGNATURE. THIS SLIGHT DISTURBANCE
APPEARED TO BE RELATED TO A CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWARD ORIENTED
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR 08-09 APR. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED ON 08 APR FROM MULTIPLE MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED ON 04
APR. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 10 APR. THE
ENERGETIC ELECTRON ENHANCEMENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD DECAY
TO NORMAL LEVELS IN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 APR a 10 APR
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 APR 141 Previsto 08 APR-10 APR 142/143/139 Media de 90 Días 07 APR 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR 015/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 APR a 10 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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