Viendo archivo del miércoles, 4 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 308 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 NOV a 07 NOV
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 NOV 141 Previsto 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 Media de 90 Días 04 NOV 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV ???/??? PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 NOV a 07 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 NOV a 07 NOV
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 NOV 141 Previsto 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 Media de 90 Días 04 NOV 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 7/7 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 NOV a 07 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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