Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 309 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8375 (N18W21) PRODUCED
THREE M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS TODAY, M1/1B AT 05/1336, AN M3 AT 1825,
AND AN M8/2B AT 1955UT. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8381 (N22E15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
WERE BRIEFLY AT MODERATE LEVELS NEAR 05/1500UT, AND HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS
PERIOD. THE THIRD DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AS A
CME (ERUPTED ON 04/0418UT) SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 NOV a 08 NOV
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 NOV 153 Previsto 06 NOV-08 NOV 155/150/150 Media de 90 Días 05 NOV 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV 015/012-015/024-030/032
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 NOV a 08 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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