Viendo archivo del domingo, 5 abril 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Apr 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 095 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 APR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8194 (S18E71) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1639UT
AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE INTO VIEW. MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS
WERE DETECTED DURING THE FLARE. NEW REGION 8195 (S26E75) ALSO
ROTATED INTO VIEW, TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REGION 8194. LIMB PROXIMITY
PREVENTED A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THESE REGIONS, WHICH ARE SITUATED
WITHIN A BAND OF HISTORICALLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES. BOTH REGIONS ARE
LIKELY PART OF AN EMERGING REGION COMPLEX. REGION 8193 (S22E28)
DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH AND PRODUCED A SINGLE C-CLASS SUBFLARE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGION 8194. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 APR a 08 APR
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 APR 126 Previsto 06 APR-08 APR 130/134/136 Media de 90 Días 05 APR 100
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR 007/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 APR a 08 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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