Viendo archivo del sábado, 4 abril 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Apr 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 094 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 APR 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8190
(S20W03) PRODUCED A C6/SF FLARE AT 03/2335UT, BUT WAS GENERALLY
STABLE IN SIZE AND SPOT COUNT. A LONG-DURATION C6 X-RAY BURST (LDE)
OCCURRED AT 04/0757UT WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATION. THE LDE MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8179, WHICH PRODUCED
MODERATE ACTIVITY DURING ITS LAST PASSAGE. EXTREMELY INTENSE CORONAL
EMISSIONS PRESAGED THE RETURN OF REGION 8179 AND AT ISSUE TIME A
SINGLE SPOT WITH MATURE PENUMBRA WAS SEEN ROTATING INTO VIEW. NEW
REGION 8193 (S22E42) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN INCREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR M-CLASS
FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GIVEN THE RETURN
OF OLD REGION 8179.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 APR a 07 APR
| Clase M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 APR 110 Previsto 05 APR-07 APR 114/118/122 Media de 90 Días 04 APR 099
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR 005/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 APR a 07 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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