Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 enero 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jan 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 015 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 JAN 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8131 (S23W35)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 15/1438Z, A C6.8/SF FLARE AT 15/0936, A
C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1312Z, AND A C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1949Z. THIS REGION
ALMOST DOUBLED IN SIZE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW AN EAI SPOT
GROUP. REGION 8135 (S16E43), THE ONLY OTHER SPOTTED REGION ON THE
VISIBLE DISK, HAS REMAINED SMALL, STABLE, AND QUIET. TWO UNCORELATED
C1 XRAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8131 HAS A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A FAIR CHANCE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE ISOLATE M-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION ALSO HAS A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING X-CLASS ACTIVITY. SPACE-BASED XRAY IMAGERS
INDICATE AT LEAST TWO OTHER POTENTIAL FLARES SOUCES ARE ABOUT TO
ENTER THE VISIBLE DISK ON THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUTDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THEN SETTLE DOWN TO QUIET LEVELS. HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE
FIRST WO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 JAN a 18 JAN
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 JAN 098 Previsto 16 JAN-18 JAN 100/102/102 Media de 90 Días 15 JAN 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JAN 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JAN-18 JAN 015/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 JAN a 18 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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