Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 enero 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Jan 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
: : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : SDF Número 016 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 JAN 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SEVERAL B-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED. GROWTH IN REGION 8131 (S24W49) SLOWED CONSIDERABLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REGION HAS STABILIZED BUT MAINTAINS A
RELATIVELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 8136
(N15W24), 8137 (S16E10), AND 8138 (S44W49) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8136 IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THE THREE NEW REGIONS,
DEVELOPING QUICKLY INTO A 10 SPOT CRO GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH MOSTLY STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, REGION 8131
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS FLARES AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS. C-CLASS FLARING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NEW REGION
8136.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH TOMORROW. EXPECT QUIET
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 JAN a 19 JAN
| Clase M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 JAN 098 Previsto 17 JAN-19 JAN 098/102/106 Media de 90 Días 16 JAN 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 JAN a 19 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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