Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 noviembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Nov 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 NOV 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E03) PRODUCED A
LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT, BEGINNING ABOUT 1700Z AND STILL IN
PROGRESS. THE EXTENDED MAXIMUM OF THE FLARE WAS CENTERED AT 1910Z.
MODEST RADIO BURSTS AT 245, 410 AND 606 MHZ ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT.
THE REGION IS STILL MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, WITH A SLIGHT MIXTURE OF
POLARITIES EXISTING IN THE MAIN LEADER SPOT. LITTLE ELSE OF
SIGNIFICANCE ON THE VISIBLE DISK OCCURRED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM
REGION 8108 IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A HIGH SPEED STREAM IS LIKELY TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AT THIS LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 NOV a 22 NOV
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 NOV 099 Previsto 20 NOV-22 NOV 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 19 NOV 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV 011/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV 015/015-015/018-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 NOV a 22 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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