Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 octubre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Oct 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 OCT 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK IS
CURRENTLY SPOTLESS. A 12 DEGREE LONG, 1/2 DEGREE WIDE NORMAL DENSITY
FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE INTERVAL 23/1211-1332Z FROM THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE FILAMENT FIRST SHOWED STRONG LINEAR CHANGE,
AND THEN BEGAN LOSING MASS QUICKLY IN AN ERUPTIVE MANNER, WITH AN
APPARENT EJECTION OF MATERIAL TRANSITING ALONG A 90 DEGREE RADIAL.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY
INCREASING TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM ON DAY THREE. THIS ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE LONG DURATION C3 X-RAY AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT ON 21
OCTOBER.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 OCT a 26 OCT
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 OCT 080 Previsto 24 OCT-26 OCT 079/078/078 Media de 90 Días 23 OCT 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 OCT 007/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT 015/020-025/030-030/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 OCT a 26 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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