Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 noviembre 1997
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Nov 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 324 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 NOV 1997IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W11)
APPEARED TO SIMPLIFY AND DECAY DURING THE PERIOD, AND PRODUCED VERY
LITTLE FLARE ACTIVITY. THE REGION CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30
SPOTS, WITH SOME MIXTURE OF MAGNETIC POLARITIES. IT MEASURES 260
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION VISIBLE,
8109 (S19E11) WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
WATCH REGION 8108 FOR C-CLASS FLARES AND, IF SOME RENEWED FLUX
EMERGENCE OCCURS, AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE HALO CME ON
NOVEMBER 17 ARE STILL POSSIBLE, AND THE LONG-DURATION C1 FLARE ON
NOVEMBER 19 FROM DISK CENTER MAY BE INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER CME. THE
SECOND CME IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FIELD ON NOVEMBER 23.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 NOV a 23 NOV
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 NOV 089 Previsto 21 NOV-23 NOV 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 20 NOV 091
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV 015/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 NOV a 23 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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