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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 04/0734Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 03/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 04/0213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 14337 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (05 Oct), quiet to active
levels on day two (06 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(07 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 158 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 020/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 014/018-012/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 45% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 129.8 -3.7 |
| October 2025 | 147.2 +17.4 |
| Last 30 days | 130.6 -4.7 |