Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 June 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 14/1221Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 14/0411Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 14/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 352 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Jun, 16
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jun,
16 Jun, 17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 151 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 031/ 066 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 019/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 016/018-019/022-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 65% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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