Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17
May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 15/0705Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 396 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 May) and active to minor storm levels on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 119 Predicted 16 May-18 May 118/118/118 90 Day Mean 15 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 013/ 012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 007/008-013/015-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 129.8 -3.7 |
| October 2025 | 140.1 +10.3 |
| Last 30 days | 131.3 -1.2 |