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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May,
06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 845 km/s at 03/1617Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 02/2328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 02/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 5464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05
May, 06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 152 Predicted 04 May-06 May 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 03 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 024/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 012/015-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 129.8 -3.7 |
| October 2025 | 140.1 +10.3 |
| Last 30 days | 131.3 -1.2 |