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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Apr 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr,
24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 745 km/s at 21/1336Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 21/0733Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 21/0803Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 452 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (24 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 163 Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 163/160/160 90 Day Mean 21 Apr 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 011/ 14 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 028/039 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 020/032-016/020-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 75% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 129.8 -3.7 |
| October 2025 | 140.1 +10.3 |
| Last 30 days | 131.3 -1.2 |